LEMMA Projections

We have done our best to obtain reliable priors from the best available literature. Please note the models are most sensitive to the following parameters:

• Behavior is static - the model assumes human behavior is unchanged by policy/exogenous factors
• Prior Infection - we estimate total infections at Oct 5 and Dec 5 to be 65% and 70%, respectively, for all regions. This is based on our Delta LEMMA models and covidestim.org
• Variant Fractions - based on sewershed and CDC estimates

To learn more about the specifics of the model, please refer to the LEMMA documentation. Also note the Omicron models may not align in all aspects to LEMMA version 2.x

• Cases - DHSS; EpiTrax
• Vaccination - DHSS; ShowMeVax
• Hospitalizations - HHS; TeleTracking

Modeling is difficult and often wrong. Please do not rely on these models as the sole source of any decision making. In addition, please note the following:

• The northeast model has the smallest population and an insufficient size of data to produce meaningful results. It is usually best to disregard
• There are consistent delays in reporting among hospital systems. We try our best to account for these discrepancies, but the ocassional outlier may be present, especially in data of the last 3 days.
• Jan 24 - Our hospitalization actuals were lower than reported by MHA. We have since ammended our source of hospitalization data.